Petrol and diesel prices at Ghanaian fuel stations are projected to record modest reductions from Friday, October 16, 2026, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is expected to become considerably more expensive, with its price per kilogram forecast to rise by 18.5%.
The projections are contained in the latest pricing outlook released by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), which assesses developments in the international petroleum market, exchange rate movements and domestic pricing conditions ahead of the next pricing window.
Under the anticipated adjustments, petrol is expected to decline by almost 2% to GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel prices could decrease by 3.32% to GH¢19.30 per litre. LPG, however, is projected to increase sharply to GH¢20.60 per kilogram.
The expected changes follow a period of relative stability during the October 1 pricing window, when most Oil Marketing Companies maintained their pump prices. The decision came after the introduction of a GH¢2 levy on diesel and government intervention that saw the Tema Oil Refinery and Sentuo Oil supply refined petroleum products to the companies at previously prevailing prices.
International Market Pressures Influence Fuel Prices
The Chamber attributed the anticipated adjustments to developments in the international energy market and recent government measures intended to moderate domestic fuel costs.
According to its report, average crude oil prices increased by 2.03% to US$126.73 per barrel during the period under consideration for the October 16 pricing window.
The rise was linked to renewed concerns about global supply, following questions raised by Ukraine over a proposed United States backed energy ceasefire and fresh attacks affecting Saudi Arabia amid the ongoing war involving Iran.
Prices of refined petroleum products moved in different directions over the same period. LPG prices increased by 7.77%, whereas diesel prices declined by 6.68% and petrol prices fell by 3.93%.
The Ghana cedi also weakened against the United States dollar, depreciating by 1.61% to GH¢11.8222 per dollar, based on average bank exchange rates recorded between September 26 and October 11, 2026.
The Chamber indicated that the local currency had lost more than 11% of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year. Seasonal demand for imported goods and rising energy costs have continued to exert pressure on the cedi, creating additional challenges for businesses that depend on foreign currency to purchase petroleum products.
Despite the upward movement in crude oil prices and the depreciation of the local currency, petrol and diesel are expected to register only limited reductions at the pumps. The projected changes are broadly consistent with forecasts published by several market analysts earlier this month.
NPA Reduces Minimum Petrol and Diesel Prices
Separately, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has revised the minimum prices applicable to petrol, diesel and LPG for the October 16 pricing window.
Market information reviewed by Joy Business indicates that the minimum petrol price has been reduced from GH¢16.45 to GH¢16.09 per litre.
The minimum price for diesel has also been lowered from GH¢17.97 to GH¢17.09 per litre. In contrast, the minimum LPG price has increased from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogram.
The NPA explained that the prescribed price floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins applied by Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins imposed by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.
These additional charges will be determined separately by the respective companies in accordance with the established Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.
The projected reductions in petrol and diesel prices could offer some relief to motorists and transport operators. However, the anticipated increase in LPG prices is likely to raise cooking fuel costs for households and businesses that depend on gas, underscoring the differing effects of the latest developments across Ghana’s petroleum market.
