Economist and political risk analyst Dr Theo Acheampong has projected that Ghana’s inflation rate will remain in single digits over the next three to four years, citing the government’s medium term economic forecasts.
Speaking on Joy News’ PM Express on Monday, Dr Acheampong explained that projections contained in the government’s fiscal framework point to a sustained moderation in the rate of price increases over the coming years.
He maintained that the medium term budget outlook anticipates inflation remaining below 10 per cent throughout the projected period.
“The forward projection for prices going forward into the next three to four years in the medium term budget is all within the sub 10 per cent,” he stated.
His remarks followed a question about whether the government could assure Ghanaians of stable prices in 2027 and 2028, particularly amid concerns about the future direction of the economy and the cost of living.
In response, the economist referred to the government’s budgetary projections, explaining that the anticipated inflation trajectory was reflected in the medium term fiscal framework rather than constituting an unconditional assurance that prices would remain stable.
He further disclosed that the government was expected to present its 2027 Budget the following week, providing another opportunity to examine its economic priorities and projections.
According to Dr Acheampong, the medium term fiscal framework outlines the government’s expectations concerning economic growth, inflation, the overall size of the economy and the country’s fiscal balances.
He also encouraged viewers to examine the forecasts contained in the previous budget documents, particularly the 2025 Budget, to assess the consistency between the government’s earlier projections and his interpretation of its economic outlook.
Turning to the implications for organised labour and public sector employees, Dr Acheampong linked the anticipated moderation in inflation to the purchasing power of future salary adjustments.
He argued that maintaining inflation below 10 per cent would help workers retain a greater proportion of the real value of their earnings, particularly if annual salary increases remained within the nine to 10 per cent range.
“So basically, you’re still in a single digit inflation environment, and to the extent that that still stays, and you can still offer workers nine per cent, you can still offer them 10 per cent,” he explained.
His position is premised on the assumption that inflation will remain within the projected range, allowing salary adjustments to translate into improvements in workers’ real incomes rather than being substantially eroded by rising prices.
The relationship between inflation and wage increases remains particularly important because the actual improvement in employees’ purchasing power depends on whether salaries rise faster than the cost of goods and services.
Consequently, although sustained single digit inflation could provide a more favourable environment for wage negotiations and household financial planning, the extent of the benefits will ultimately depend on whether the government’s projections materialise over the coming years.
The inflation outlook, therefore, remains an important indicator to watch as Ghana prepares its 2027 Budget and outlines its medium term economic priorities.
